Where Canadian mortgage rates, the housing market and borrowing costs are headed — and what to do about it.
CMHC puts about 1.15 million Canadian mortgages up for renewal in 2026, on top of 1.5 million already renewed. A $600,000 mortgage from 2021 at 1.99% goes from $2,537.81 a month to $3,046.84 at today's best insured fixed rate.
Variable still starts about 70 basis points cheaper than fixed, at 3.35% against 4.04%. On a $500,000 mortgage it takes roughly four 25 basis point hikes to erase that head start, and the market is pricing one to two by the end of 2026.
The five-year Government of Canada bond yield has climbed to about 3.70%, its highest since 2024, and lenders have started raising fixed mortgage rates. The policy rate has not moved. Here is what the increase costs on a $500,000 mortgage and what to do before October 28.
Most Canadian lenders allow a penalty-free renewal about 120 days before maturity, and some allow more. See what the major banks publish, how renewing early differs from breaking early, the start-date trap that can cost thousands, and how rising bond yields affect timing in 2026.
A lenders offer the lowest rates to borrowers who fit standard rules, B lenders accept more complex files for a premium, and private lenders lend on equity at the highest cost. Compare regulation, rates, fees and first-year cost, plus a plan to move up a tier.
One short email when the market moves — Bank of Canada decisions, bond yields, and what they mean for your renewal.
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