Rate alerts, Bank of Canada decisions and Canadian mortgage market updates.
Canada's 5-year bond yield closed at 3.63% on October 5, 2026 and the best five-year fixed sits at 4.34% — a spread of 71 basis points against a normal 100 to 200. If lenders restore a 130-point markup with yields flat, a $500,000 mortgage costs $1,981 more a year. Here is the math, and the three releases before the October 28 decision.
Markets now price a 54% chance of a 25 basis point Bank of Canada rate hike on October 28, and a quarter point is effectively fully priced by December 9. Here is what that does to prime, to variable payments, and to anyone renewing in 2026.
Nine forecasters, one policy rate, and a full percentage point of disagreement about where it lands in 2027 - while the bond market prices 3.50%. Here is every call, the prime rate each one implies, and how to plan on a range instead of a number.
Canada's prime rate is 4.45%, with the market-implied path at 4.70% by end-2026 and 5.70% in 2027. On a $500,000 variable at prime minus 1.10%, the first step costs $65.89 a month and the full move costs $338.30.
Canada's August CPI put headline inflation at 3.0% and core at 2.0%, with gasoline up 23% doing nearly all the work. Here is which measure the Bank of Canada weighs, and why the October 19 release matters more than this one.
Variable still starts about 70 basis points cheaper than fixed, at 3.35% against 4.04%. On a $500,000 mortgage it takes roughly four 25 basis point hikes to erase that head start, and the market is pricing one to two by the end of 2026.
The five-year Government of Canada bond yield has climbed to about 3.70%, its highest since 2024, and lenders have started raising fixed mortgage rates. The policy rate has not moved. Here is what the increase costs on a $500,000 mortgage and what to do before October 28.
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