Is November 2025 the Best Time to Lock In a Fixed Rate?

With mortgage rates steadily easing throughout 2024–2025, many Canadians are wondering whether November 2025 is the ideal moment to lock into a fixed rate. After years of volatility, borrowers are finally seeing lower mortgage rates, declining bond yields, and a more predictable economic environment.

But should you lock in now — or wait for further decreases?

Here’s everything homeowners and buyers need to know.

1. Fixed Rates Are at Their Lowest Levels in Years

By November 2025, fixed mortgage rates have continued trending downward due to:

• Cooling inflation

• Lower Government of Canada bond yields

• Global rate-cut cycles

• Reduced recession risk

Typical Fixed Rates in November 2025:

• 5-year fixed (insured): 3.99%–4.49%

• 5-year fixed (uninsured): 4.39%–4.89%

• Shorter terms (1–3 years): also highly competitive

These are the most attractive fixed rates Canadians have seen since pre-2022 conditions.

2. Bond Yields Suggest More Softening — but Slower

Fixed rates follow bond yields, not the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate.

Leading into November 2025:

• Bond yields have declined significantly

• Market volatility has calmed

• Most of the major downward movement has already happened

This means the sharp drops are over, and any further declines will likely be small and gradual.

3. The Bank of Canada Is Entering a Stabilization Phase

The BoC cut interest rates multiple times through 2024–2025 but is now approaching a neutral stance.

Expectations for November:

• No immediate rate cut

• No rate hike

• A stable policy rate around 2.75%–3.25%

For fixed-rate borrowers, this means predictable lending conditions — a strong environment for locking in.

4. Should You Lock In Now or Wait for More Drops?

The answer depends on your financial situation.

✔ Lock In Now If You Want Stability

These conditions favour locking in:

• You prefer predictable monthly payments

• You’re renewing from a higher rate

• You’re risk-averse or on a tight budget

• You want long-term protection heading into 2026–2029

Rates today are already “discounted” compared to the peak — and close to what many economists consider the “new normal.”

✖ Wait If You Believe Rates Will Fall Further

Waiting may make sense if:

• You think bond yields will fall more in early 2026

• You are comfortable with short-term rate fluctuations

• You prefer variable or shorter fixed terms

• You’re planning to refinance soon

However, the potential savings from waiting may be minimal compared to the risk of missing today’s lows.

5. What Homeowners Renewing in 2025 Should Do

If your renewal is within 120 days, locking in now has strong advantages:

Benefits:

• Rate holds protect you from sudden market swings

• Lenders may offer competitive promotions

• You can switch lenders without penalty at renewal

• Lower rates can reduce payment shock

A broker can compare multiple lenders to secure the best structure.

6. Should First-Time Buyers Lock In?

For buyers entering the market in late 2025:

• Fixed rates offer security during uncertain times

• Lower rates improve stress-test outcomes

• Shorter-term fixed mortgages (2–3 years) provide flexibility if rates fall further

Most first-time buyers benefit from predictability rather than betting on continued declines.

7. Market Risks to Consider

Even with favourable conditions, risks remain:

• Global economic shocks

• Unexpected inflation spikes

• Bond market volatility

• Policy changes impacting lending

Any of these could push fixed rates upward — making today’s rates a valuable window.

Final Thoughts

So, is November 2025 the best time to lock in a fixed rate?
For many Canadians, the answer is yes.

Rates have fallen significantly from previous highs, economic conditions are stable, and bond yields suggest only modest future declines. Locking in now provides predictability, protection, and peace of mind — especially for renewals and budget-sensitive households.

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